MarketPsych Presents: Market Beer Goggles, Part I

College, 1992: A Flashback

It happened late at night. It always happens late at night. The keg was kicked and the host was reduced to breaking out a bottle of Peach Schnapps that had been in the back of the liquor cabinet since the Nixon Administration. What. A. Party. You danced a little. Drank a lot. And you spent the last hour on the couch canoodling with this really hot girl (or guy as the case may be). You asked your model-esque romantic interest if he/she wanted to find some place a little more private...

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Yep. It was a pretty cool night. That was until you got the party photos back. Looking at them now, you see that something is strangely, terribly amiss.

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"That's definitely me on the couch", you think, "I have the matching Guinness stain on my Polo shirt to prove it. But who in the name of Extreme Makeovers is that decidely un-hot person sitting next to me?!" And, follow up question, "What did I do? (gulp) Please tell me it's not what I think it is!"

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Beer Goggles: noun, A metaphorical set of "eye-glasses" worn after excessive alcohol consumption that makes otherwise unattractive individuals extremely desirable.

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Back in college, it was known as Beer Goggling. And for most of us college is where it stayed. We all get older, and generally that means wiser. We learn to make better choices, to channel our impulses. As we mature our lifestyles change, we settle down. But while we don't break out "The Goggles" at parties anymore, we sometimes break them out in "The Market".

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How does it happen? What is this intoxicating mixture that distorts our judgment, lowers our standards, and causes us to hook up a dreadful, "oh-my-gosh-I-did-what" stock. It's a pretty simple recipe:

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Market Love Potion #9

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Mix:

2 Parts Media Hype

2 Parts Greed

2 Parts Impulse Control

1 Part Peer Pressure

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Shake well. Serve over crushed ice. Garnish with lemon peel.

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Welcome to MarketPsych's new semi-regular feature, Beer Goggle Stocks! Where we use hindsight, and the harsh, wince-inducing light of day to illuminate those times we became intoxicated by a stock or sector and made a regrettable choice that could have been avoided if only we were thinking clearly.

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We will highlight a number of these investments. Analysis will include a "before" and "after" picture, a break down of the emotional/cognitive/social factors that led to misjudgment and an outline for how to avoid such mistakes in the future.

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Like the old T-shirt, "Friends Don't Let Friends Beer Goggle".

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And at MarketPsych we like to think of ourself as your investing friend. The responsible one who takes your car keys, orders you a cup of black coffee and walks you around the block when you're not thinking straight. So if you've ever hooked up with a hot stock only to later to see it was a dog... stayed tuned for part II.
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Coming Soon: Market Beer Goggle Part II - Ethanol, I Promise I'll Love You in the Morning.

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In the meantime, happy investing.

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-Dr. Frank Murtha

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MarketPsych is the premier Investing Psychology Consulting Firm. We have been doing talks, keynotes, workshops, training, coaching, consulting in Investing Psychology since 2002. Our clients include individuals and institutions in all areas of the financial community. Contact us at info@marketpsych.com for more information on how we can help you.

Yeah, But Are You "Sure-Sure"?

Ivory soap is famously 99.44% pure. I like that extra 44/100s. It gives me peace of mind.

If only financial forecasters would follow the Ivory model in their predictions. I've been hearing/reading/seeing a lot of expert predictions these days. New calendar years and volatile markets seem to attract them.

Now, let's be clear, I don't have a crystal ball. (I do have a Magic 8-Ball. But when I asked it if the Jets would make the playoffs it told me "Signs Point to Yes." So I'm thinking it's busted.)

The only predictions I will make with any confidence are these:

1) All consensus predictions will be too narrow in scope.

2) People will overuse artificial parameters in the form of round numbers and calendar years when formulating those overly narrow predictions.

Okay, I cheated.

Those aren't predictions. They're observations of human behavior that are among the most reliable you will ever find.

How reliable? Research into the area that behavioral finance folks call "overconfidence" indicate that when people are asked to predict a range in which they are 99% confident results will fall (i.e., a 99% confidence interval) they are correct 80% of the time.

Now at first blush, that may not seem so awful. 80% vs 90-something%...what's the big deal?

But it is awful.

Truly, horribly, make-you-want-to-toss-your-cookies awful.

Why?

Think of the corresponding behavior in light of such predictions. When we're 99% of something, it's basically as close to saying we're absolutely certain as we're going to get.

You could go Ivory Soap and say 99.44% certain but when we blurt out, "I'm 99% sure that won't happen", we're essentially saying, "No shot in hell."

That's dangerous even when it's TRUE.

Once in a hundred years was the standards to which they built the New Orleans levees. That works fine... right up until your neighborhood has to be airlifted off the rooftops.

But with market predictions, it's 20x worse. Events that people - and this includes experts, mind you -- say would happen every 100 years (1%) - happen EVERY FIVE YEARS (20%).

Let's say you listen to a more conservative expert predictor. He/she is twice as good and are accurate 90% of the time.

That STILL means every 10 years we're going to experience something that "nobody" saw coming.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a book called The Black Swan. (It's not as good a book as Richard Peterson's Inside the Investor's Brain, but it's certainly worth reading).

Where are we seeing such predictions these days?

Oh... everywhere.

"Where do you believe the S & P will be a year from now?"

"How high do you think unemployment can go?"

"What are the chances you will have to cut your dividend, Mr. CEO?"

Remember, fellow investors, fight the danger of narrow framing and don't be drawn into sharing the outlook of those who look at the horizon through a key hole and tell you wide it is.

We have no reliable way of knowing how bad (or how good) it's going to get.

The key is to expand the scope of expectations and to have plans in place for even the most unlikely-seeming scenarios.

Think "Ivory Soap".

And good luck.

-Frank

(If you are interested in a MarketPsych seminar, please feel free to contact us at info@marketpsych.com. I'm 99.44% sure you will find our seminars valuable.)

CEO's do it.

The Value of the Time Out

In the words of Dick Vitale... "Get a T.O., Baby!!"

The value of the time out to the investor and investors plural (i.e., "the market") is hard to exaggerate.

Whether it's FDR's famous "Bank Holidays," or suspended trading, or simply going for a long walk when you're tempted to make an impulsive trade, the "time out" is a major weapon in an investor's fear-fighting aresenal.

Why? Because fear FORCES us to think short term. It's simply the way our brains are wired. There is a sound biological/evolutionary reason behind this reaction.

When you're out gathering firewood for the cave and lock eyes with a large male Smilodon (read Sabretooth Tiger) who has just emerged from the glade, your brain simply CANNOT LET you indulge in thoughts like "what to wear to Zog's birthday party?" or "should I redo the cave paintings for the harvest season (antelopes are so "early pleistocene")?"

The Sabretooth has gone the way of the Dodo, but the evolutionary function remains. Intense fear still draws our focus on the here and now. As well it should.

This is where the time out can help. The ablility to take a break and regain our bearings (to "step out of the box" as Crash Davis would say) gives our amydalas a chance to stop firing. When that happens we can engage other parts of our brain. That's when we can pull up and out of the tailspin of panic. It's neurobiology. See Rich's critically acclained tome for more information.

This is, of course, the eternal struggle for investors: To pull out of the short-term focus and think big picture.

When we do calm our brains and revisit the situation, it doesn't mean our outlook becomes rosy. It just means we've given our brains the ability to reintroduce reason to our thinking processes - and perhaps a chance to spot the fantastic opportunities such crises produce.

A few days off may be just what the doctor ordered.

In the meantime, good luck out there, everyone.

Frank

Pressure Valve: Letting off Steam

Have you ever seen a steam pipe explode?

I did. I was in Boston driving down Boylston. I heard an explosion, checked the rear view mirror and what I saw looked amazingly close to the above photograph.

Market crises can create the investing equivalent of steam pipe explosions. Investors get caught between two competing pyschological forces that build up pressure:

On one hand, uncertainty causes indecision.

But on the other hand, when we are anxious, we naturally feel a need to do SOMETHING.

The result of these two psychological forces work against each other until -- Kaboom! -- the pressure becomes too much.

It's a vicious cycle and it goes something like this: Do nothing (and suffer), do nothing (suffer some more), continue to do nothing (suffer to the breaking point) then PANIC!!! (do something rash).

It's a wealth killer.

We need a way to let off steam, so that the pressure doesn't build to the point of explosion.

Now, let it be said that we don't give specific advice to investors here at MarketPsych.

Nonetheless, there are some tricks that people often employ to relieve the pressure.

One of the best pressure valves we have is to sell a small percentage of certain positions to free up some cash.

This works on a financial level, but more importantly it works on an emotional level.

Why does it work?

1) It fulfills a deep-seated psychological need to do something, to take back control of our lives.

2) It creates something safe. It lets us know that at least part of the money that was at risk, is now safe. We have less exposure to pain.

3) It gives us freedom. We now have money that we can put to work on our terms. Emotional forces can no longer compel us to sell what will we have already willingly sold.

4) It's a hedge against regret. We all have the same nausea-inducing fears of regret: E.g. "The moment I sell, the market will bottom out" or "It's going to keep going down, and I'm going to hate myself for riding it to the bottom." Selling a small percentage mitigates this crippling fear.

5) It allows us to reframe crises as opportunities. We know that market panics create opportunities. The problem for so many people is they simply don't have the cash available to take advantage of those opportunities. The ability to engage other parts of our brain is another fear-fighting tool that helps put investors back on a healthy investing track.

How much is enough? 1%? 5%?... 20%? Only you can decide. Sit down with your advisor and see where you stand.

If you would like more information on our trainings, please feel free to contact us.

In the meantime... good luck out there.

Frank

Fearless Forecasting: How Low Can You Go?

It's official. The DJIA dropped 20% from its highs last October.

In other words, the Bear is back.

Whenever we hit a nice round number (e.g., "Dow 10,000) or experience a round number move (e.g., "Down 20%) it leads to a big picture discussion of where the market has gone... and where it will go next.

That means "market predictions".

In an earlier post, I observed that employing a black-tailed marmoset to throw darts at a board would prove just as useful an exercise (and an infinitely more entertaining one.)

It may be useful in at this time to review two major causes of precisely why.

One major cause is something called the Gambler's Fallacy, a miscalculation that ironically tends to afflict more market savvy investors (pros) than casual investors (amateurs).

Quick Example: Say you're at Mohegan Sun (where I was last week) and you're observing the roulette table. The wheel turns up "red" results 7 times in a row. These results don't fit with our mental schema. We know that the odds of a ball coming up "red" vs "black" at a roulette table is roughly 50%/50% (47.368/47.368 to be more precise). Our brain says something to the effect of "Black is due"! And we feel the urge to bet (overbet?) on a black result next time. Of course, the odds of the wheel yielding a "black" result are the same as ever - roughly 50/50. But it feels like it should turn up black, and that feeling overrides our rationality.

This is the classic manifestation of the Gambler's Fallacy - the notion a series of independent events yield useful information about predicting future independent events.

Pretty elementary stuff, I grant you. So why should something so obvious effect even top Wall Street Strategists?

Because the same tendency reveals itself in Market Predictions.

Hersh Shefrin, in his landmark book, Beyond Greed and Fear, provides a relevant example. At the beginning of 1997, Barron's interviewed chief strategists from top Wall Street firms, requesting 12 month market predictions.

On June 20, the market had risen 19.7% for the year to 7796, well above every strategist had forecasted.

A chief strategist for Smith Barney said in response, "We've all been humbled".

When Barron's asked the strategists for revisions predictions in late June, the average prediction was for the DJIA to drop 10.3% by year end.

Point of fact, the DJIA close slightlty higher for the year at 7908.

So despite all we know about market tendencies to move higher, the experts predicted a steep, upstream move in the opposite direction.

Why did they do it then and why do they continue to do it?

The answer is the investing version of the Gambler's Fallacy, that template driven interpretation of regression to the mean. We know the Dow tends to go up on average 9% or so every year. And we have a strong desire to fit predictions into that template.

But there is nothing magical about a calendar year - it's just a handy way of charting time. And if stocks tend to go up 9% or so every 12 months, than regression to the mean demands we predict that stocks will go up 9% or so every 12 months - not that they will reverse themselves according to our schedule in order to provide yearly averages.

Now, I'm not throwing stones here. Believe me, I'm not. I'm wrong constantly. And certainly all the participants were wise and learned professionals whose opinions are worthy of respect. But that's part of what makes this so fascinating.

Even they (especially they?) are not immune from the same impulses that drive roulette players to overbet because they think "red" is overdue or because a single digit number hasn't popped up in a while.

And - I can't help myself, I'm gonna say it - the other factor is no, (gosh darnit) they were not humbled, despite declarations to the contrary.

Wrong? Yes. Embarrassed? Perhaps. But humbled? No way.

A crucial component to being humbled is admitting you are wrong.

By prediciting a 10% reversal, the experts adjusted their predictions to support their original predictions.

Trying to prove you were right all along is not humility. It is the opposite of humility.

So with a bear market here and the inevitable market predictions to come, what are some things for investors to keep in mind?

1) Stay ready.

2) Stay humble.

3) Recognize the mathematical illusions inherent in regression to the mean.

Happy Investing.

Frank

The Market Prediction Game: Here We Go Again...

There's been a lot of activity in the markets so far in 2008. We've seen uncommon (though harldly unseen) volatility. And with volatility comes one of "The Street's" favorite pastimes; The Market Prediction Game.

But how do these predictions tend to pan out? With talking heads doing their talking thing everyday, it's hard to keep track of the daily (hourly?) deluge of prognostications.

But when we do collect the information, it is telling. The Wall Street Journal surveyed top economists semi-annually, to get forecasts on what bonds were going to do over the next 6 months. The data go back to 1982.

The experts (intelligent people all, to be sure), were wrong in the predictions of the direction bond yields 66% of the time. That is to say, when asked 6 months from now will the yield on a 10 Year Treasury be A) Higher or B) Lower... they got it right 1 out of 3 times. (Source: Davis Advisors)

Do you realize how bad that is?

Employing a black-tailed marmoset to throw darts at a board marked "higher" and "lower" would be a better predictor!

MARKETPSYCH LEGAL COUNSEL DISCLAIMER: Marketpsych.com does NOT promote or otherwise endorse the practice of marmoset dart throwing. Sure, it's fun. But that's beside the point. Arming small, wiry primates with sharp objects for throwing is dangerous and most likely illegal in the US (with the possible exception of licensed establishments in the state of Nevada). Marketpsych partners are NOT responsible for damages suffered by those engaging in this activity.

The fact is, human beings are notoriously lousy predictors of future market events. A study by George Wolford and associates at Dartmouth College found that even rats and pigeons outpeform humans in short-term market prediction. (No word on marmosets).

This does not mean the market doesn't have cycles, or that patterns don't emerge. Indeed, to be wrong 2 out of 3 times (as the economists were on bond yields) lends credence to the notion that the predictions are NOT random. It points to the central theme of short-term reactivity that seems to dominate investing patterns - something we call Whack-A-Mole Syndrome. (TM)

My colleague, Dr. Richard Peterson, has written about it here in his superior book, and even developed the Marketpsych Fear Index which tracks how investor emotion is often an inverse predictor.

But the point is you don't need a crystal ball to be a succesful investor. You need a few simple but undervalued qualities. 1) The ability to recognize companies with proven records. 2) The ability to recognize when their stocks are at an attractive valuation vs. earnings. 3) The discipline to invest your money in them... and not monkey with it. (pardon the pun).

But we can't help ourselves. With so much information available, with so much money on the line, we love to engage in the Prediction Game. (By the way, Pats 34 - Giants 14 - you heard it here first!).

The Market Prediction Game reminds me of the end of the classic 80's flick, War Games (starring a young Matthew Broderick), when "Joshua", the American military super-computer aborts a nuclear launch on the Soviet Union because it realizes that it would result in mutually assured destruction. The computer learns the folly of the eponymous "War Game".

"Strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

Indeed, Joshua. So don't play.

How about buying some great companies cheap?

Or perhaps a nice game of chess, instead?

IT'S HERE: Inside the Investor's Brain

After a year-long writing odyssey, it's with great excitement that I announce the release of my new book, Inside the Investor's Brain. You can purchase the book here: Inside the Investor's Brain: The Power of Mind Over Money (Wiley Trading).

The ability to manage your mind in the markets is necessary for long-term trading and investment success. This book teaches the science of achieving high investment returns through an understanding of the power of mind. Endorsements are here. I won't repeat the publishers's long blurb (here: Inside the Investor's Brain: The Power of Mind Over Money (Wiley Trading)), but below is the table of contents:

Introduction.

PART ONE. FOUNDATIONS: THE INTERSECTION OF MIND AND MONEY.
Chapter 1. Markets on the Mind: The challenge of finding an edge.
Chapter 2. Brain Basics: The building blocks.
Chapter 3. Origins of Mind: Expectations, beliefs, and meaning.
Chapter 4. Neurochemistry: This is your brain on drugs.

PART TWO. FEELINGS AND FINANCES.
Chapter 5. Intuition: The power of listening to your gut.
Chapter 6. Money Emotions: Clouding judgment.
Chapter 7. Joy, Hope, and Greed: Hooked on a feeling.
Chapter 8. Overconfidence and Hubris: Too much of a good thing.
Chapter 9. Anxiety, Fear, and Nervousness: How not to panic.
Chapter 10. Stress and burn-out: Short term pleasure, long term pain.
Chapter 11. Love of Risk: Are you trading or gambling?
Chapter 12. Personality Factors: What are great investors like?

PART THREE. THINKING ABOUT MONEY.
Chapter 13. Making Decisions: The effects of probability, ambiguity, and trust.
Chapter 14. Framing Your Options: Seeing the world in black and white.
Chapter 15. Loss Aversion: Cutting losers short and letting winners run.
Chapter 16. Time Discounting: Why we eat dessert first.
Chapter 17. Herding: Keeping up with the Jones’.
Chapter 18. Charting and data mining: Reading tea leaves.
Chapter 19. Attention and Memory: What’s in a name?
Chapter 20. Age, Sex, and Culture: Risk-taking around the world.

PART FOUR. IN PRACTICE.
Chapter 21. Emotion Management: A balancing act.
Chapter 22. Change Techniques: Going deep.
Chapter 23. Behavioral Finance Investing: Playing the players.

Notes.
Glossary.
Index.

It is my sincere hope that Inside the Investor's Brain will help you achieve investment (and life) success beyond your wildest expectations.

Richard