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PolyNews Feed

Prediction market intelligence for institutional research and risk workflows

4,000

Alerts Per Day

~400

Ticker-Tagged Daily

<60s

Delivery Latency

191K+

Markets Monitored

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Background

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where participants stake capital on real-world events with defined settlement dates. Because participants wager real money, the resulting probability signals reflect financial conviction rather than stated opinion.

Polymarket runs on the Polygon (Ethereum) blockchain. Every trade, position, and settlement is recorded on-chain. Open APIs (Gamma and CLOB) expose market data, order books, and trade history. PolyNews converts this raw data into a structured, machine-readable intelligence feed.

Product Overview

PolyNews monitors 191,000+ Polymarket markets in real time and delivers enriched news alerts within 60 seconds. Six trigger types are covered:

Whale Trades

Large bets placed on Polymarket. Example: “$289K buy at 99.8% on US Government Shutdown.” Identifies large-capital positioning by event and probability.

Odds Shifts

Significant probability movements on geopolitical, macro, or market events. Alerts are generated before coverage appears in mainstream financial media.

Volume Milestones

Triggers when aggregate value traded crosses a defined threshold. Example: “China invade Taiwan market crosses $10.0M.”

New Listings

Newly listed markets signal emerging narratives, often hours before traditional media coverage or analyst reports.

New Wallet Surge

Triggers when a large number of new wallets enter a market, indicating rising participation and broadening attention.

Profitable Wallet Activity

Tracks wallets with a verified history of profitable predictions. Alerts when accounts with a documented track record place new positions.

Technology

The MarketPsych Tagging Engine

Every PolyNews alert is enriched with six layers:

Entity Recognition

2M+ entities identified including locations, companies, people, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and more. Same engine powers Yahoo! Finance and the iPhone Stocks App.

Security Tagging

Maps Polymarket events to exchange tickers, topic codes, and PermID identifiers so prediction-market signals can be joined to live order books.

5,000+ Topics

Taxonomy covering macro, geopolitical, sector, and thematic categories. All machine-readable and organized in a hierarchical structure.

Temporal Parsing

Structured time references: event windows, deadlines, and forward vs. historical context, so event-driven strategies can filter by resolution date.

Sentiment Scoring

Domain-specific sentiment calibrated on settled market outcomes, not generic social-media polarity. Tuned for financial and geopolitical event language.

Grammatical Metadata

Subject/object roles, verb tenses, and dependency relations for clean event extraction and downstream LLM grounding.

Sample Enriched Alert

"event_id":     "000004236923-KDYB",
"market_id":    "000004236923",
"market_name":  "Fed decision in March?",
"event_news":   "$197.0K buy at 98.5%
                on Fed +25bps Mar 2026.",
"event_type":   "WHALE_TRADE",
"amount_usd":   197000,
"implied_prob": 0.985,
"tickers":      ["TLT","TBF","SHY"],
"topics":       ["MONETARY_POLICY"],
"sentiment":    +0.72,
"time_ref":     "March 2026",
"latency_ms":   3820

Data Architecture

The Blockchain Advantage

Because all Polymarket activity is recorded on-chain, PolyNews can support queries and analytics not possible with conventional data sources:

Complete Trade History

Every bet placed on Polymarket is recorded on Polygon (Ethereum). Full audit trail.

Smart Wallet Analytics

Identify wallets with a documented history of accurate predictions.

Probability Trajectories

Full time-series of every market’s probability from listing to settlement.

Timing and Pattern Analysis

When do whale trades cluster? Which events see last-minute probability spikes?

Order Flow Context

Buy/sell flow patterns, order sizes, and market depth from CLOB API and on-chain data combined.

Emerging Narrative Detection

New market listings often precede mainstream media coverage or analyst reports by hours or days.

Use Cases

Who Uses PolyNews?

PolyNews is structured for institutional buyside clients. The feed covers the event types and asset classes most relevant to macro and event-driven research workflows.

Hedge Funds

Election and policy probability feeds, earnings positioning signals, cross-asset correlation mapping, and event odds tied to security and options prices.

Insurance and Risk

Dynamic risk model inputs, sovereign risk probability feeds, conflict and invasion odds, and probability-based pricing inputs for underwriting and reserving workflows.

Geopolitical Analysts

Conflict escalation signals, election outcome probabilities, cross-country risk comparisons, and early warning via new market listings.

Asset Classes Covered

Rates, FX, Equities, Commodities, Credit, and Crypto - PolyNews maps prediction-market events to the asset classes most relevant to macro and event-driven research workflows.

Competitive Positioning

Why MarketPsych?

Raw Polymarket API data is publicly available. MarketPsych adds the NLP layer, security mapping, and wallet analytics that convert it into a structured, institutionally usable product.

Ticker Mapping

2M+ security aliases mapped to exchange tickers and identifiers across 20+ languages, so prediction-market events connect cleanly to live order books.

Smart Wallet Tracking

On-chain analytics that identify wallets with documented prediction accuracy. Tracks positioning before price moves and surfaces conviction from informed participants.

Production-Grade NLP

Same infrastructure as Yahoo! Finance and the iPhone Stocks App, with 500+ academic citations behind the tagging and sentiment models.

Competitive Comparison

Capability	PolyNews	Raw API	Others
Real-time alerts (<60s)	Yes	Yes	Partial
Security ticker mapping	Yes	No	Partial
Smart wallet tracking	Yes	No	No
NLP metadata and sentiment	Yes	No	Partial
Entity recognition (2M+ aliases for products, people, cryptocurrencies, etc...)	Yes	No	No
LLM-written narrative description (news blurb)	Yes	No	No

Contact Us

Request a data trial, API access, or a product walkthrough.

[email protected] | marketpsych.com