AI-Driven Financial Foresight

On Monday, we’re launching our Global Leaders Feed — a real-time stream of social and news announcements from influential U.S. cabinet members and global leaders. Why? Because they move markets.💥 Case in point:- Today at 1:18 pm ET (17:18 GMT), President Trump posted on Truth Social that reciprocal tariffs would “PAUSE.”- Within minutes, the U.S. stock market rallied in one of its largest 30-minute moves in history (see image).🔍 And yet — CNBC and other outlets couldn't identify the reason for the surge until after the bulk of the move had already happened. ⚠️ Earlier the same day, China’s retaliatory 84% tariffs were posted on Reddit and X/Twitter — a full 6 minutes before traditional financial media and 9 minutes before a low-latency Reuters ALERT.📰📉📈 Markets Are Moving Faster Than the News 📡 Introducing Media Radar:A real-time NLP-powered feed that extracts early signals from high-impact media platforms. Our feed delivers structured JSON metadata, ready to plug into quant models, signal engines, alerting systems, and portfolio risk tools. NLP Tags Provided:🔹 Entities: 20+ types (stocks, commodities, currencies...)🔹 Topics: 1,000+ (accounting, litigation, tariffs...)🔹 Events: 4,000+ (dividends-payment, factory-build...)🔹 Sentiment: Finance, ESG, commodity scores🔹 Emotions: 14 dimensions (anger, fear, optimism...)For a sample of the Global Leaders feed or a trial of Media Radar:👉 Reach out to: [email protected]👉 Or sign up here: https://lnkd.in/gtUPfc_B

📉 Get Ready for Turnaround Tuesday in the Stock Market 📈 On Monday, September 15th, 2008, I was in the green room for a financial news segment, preparing to speak on behavioral finance. A CEO of a large equity investment firm was also there. As he left, he turned to me and said: “Get ready for Turnaround Tuesday!” 📊 That Tuesday turned out to be one of the biggest rallies in S&P 500 history.Curious, I looked into it further — and sure enough, the stock market has a quirky history of rallying on Tuesdays following steep Monday selloffs. It’s a known behavioral phenomenon.

We analyzed mentions of "tariffs" in U.S. earnings calls over the past two decades:🔹 In 23 years of data, only the Trump presidencies saw tariffs become a major boardroom topic. 🔹 During Trump I, it took time for tariff talk to ramp up. 🔹 In Trump II, we've surpassed the prior peak — and the bulk of earnings season hasn't even hit. 🔹 Mentions are now far beyond the previous peak.  👀 Market participants are clearly bracing for geopolitical and trade turbulence. 💬 This time the Trade War does not look like a negotiation tactic.

Stocks Associated with Tariffs are Tanking We collected all U.S. earnings call transcripts from March 2025 and grouped companies into three buckets: 1️⃣ No mention of tariffs 2️⃣ Mentions tariffs 3️⃣ Mentions tariffs 30+ times in a single earnings conference call Then we looked at April stock returns… 👀  The results speak for themselves:🔵 Companies that didn’t mention tariffs had better average performance🔵 Those that talked tariffs saw worse returns🔵 And frequent tariff talkers? Down over 16% on average.

An update on our Feb 25th post - falling sentiment often pulls the stock market lower in a predictable fashion, especially when sentiment is dropping from a high level.  US stock market sentiment is now approaching 2022 lows, but not COVID lows. Uncertainty and fear are also rising significantly. When those two emotions stabilize, prices could rebound in a "relief rally." But we've got a ways to go before that can happen.

In the past 24 hours, the companies most positively and negatively associated with "tariffs" in the media. In the image, the horizontal bars represent the average sentiment of co-mentions of the company with "tariffs" in the past 24 hours of media coverage. At least 5 co-references required to be plotted. 👍 Possible beneficiaries (or less-affected) companies include:1. BJ's Wholesale Club - inventory is largely tariff-resistant2. Philip Morris - consumers want their staples (like tobacco) regardless of price.3. Goodyear - competitors are much more affected, so Goodyear will benefit.4. Ferarri - customers are price insensitive.5. First Solar - like Goodyear, the company will benefit from high tariffs on low-cost Chinese competitors. 👎 Among losers, shipper Maersk is sinking (sorry), Best Buy's almost entirely non-US electronics stock is becoming costlier, and Puma's "cheap" shoes are no longer so.

If you're interested in the power of earnings calls over markets, please join our upcoming webinar on April 2nd at 3pm UK Time / 10 am ET: https://lnkd.in/gMqN-kr2

In the past 3 months of earnings calls we averaged the sentiment of every sentence in which an analyst referenced "tariffs." Exactly 100 companies had more than 3 such tariffs references. On average, only 5% of companies were positive, while 95% were negative.  The level of positivity was anemic for those five positive companies and was exceptionally negative for the remaining ninety-five. Please join our webinar April 2nd (https://lnkd.in/gy3TjFf9) or reach out for more info about the newly launched LSEG MarketPsych Transcript Analytics.