Who Wins The World Cup Semifinal? The Financial Markets Weigh In.

Elimination from the World Cup is followed by a stock market return 49 bps below expectations for the country that lost on the following day, according to Edmans et al (Journal of Finance, 2007), who examined more than 1,100 matches across 39 countries.

Goldman Sachs found that the stock market of the country that wins the World Cup outperformed world markets by about 3.5 percent in the month after the final but then underperformed by 4 percent over the year that followed.

MarketPsych's Radar MCP finds that social media commentary before the England-Argentina game is more passionate than before prior matches. (If you've got English or Argentine friends, then you know what I'm referring to!).

Financial commentary from the UK suggests England's win will boost stocks of firms like Tesco, Sainsbury's, ITV, and Nike (which supplies England's kit), while coverage in Argentina centers notes pressure on the peso from card spending abroad by fans and beneficiaries likely to be IRSA, MercadoLibre, and adidas (which supplies Argentina's gear).