How Mentions of Tariffs in Earning Calls Affect Companies' Share Prices

We did a simple study that counted the number of times "tariffs" were mentioned in Earnings Call Transcripts of global companies in March 2025. The share price returns of those companies in April and May were then tabulated. Those whose transcripts mentioned tariffs 30x or more fell 4% through May 31st, while those with no mentions (thousands) rose 12.5% from April 1st to May 31st.

Among all stock price factors, the number of references to "tariffs" in earnings transcripts was one of the most predictive in 2025.