The U.S. CPI came out yesterday showing inflation at 4.9%. Our predictive model, based on the aggregate inflation forecasts from news and social media, shows a further significant inflation drop over the next month to 4.3%. This model has consistently had a 30% tighter fit to the U.S. CPI than the consensus of experts since it began rolling-forward (expanding window architecture) in 2004.
Once interest rate expectations plateau, then the market may resume its upwards drift.
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