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About MarketPsych

MarketPsych LLC is a leader in behavioral finance, applying the competitive advantages from modern psychology into finance through data, research, and consulting.

DATA
World's most comprehensive sentiment data produced in partnership with Thomson Reuters
RESEARCH
Predictive analytics underlying economic research, trading strategies, and investment recommendations
CONSULTING
Best-in-class coaching for financial advisors, traders and investors

Latest News

January 28, 2015

A recording of our webinar "Arbitraging News Sentiment Across Global Equities" is available on YouTube.

January 21, 2015

Join us for a webinar explaining results from our newest equities sentiment research:  "Arbitraging News Sentiment Across Global Equities", ​hosted by Unicom and presented by Dr. Peterson.

November 05, 2014

We're participating in this complimentary Thomson Reuters webinar:  Intelligent Trading: Beyond latency, turning big data into competitive insights

Recent Press

January 29, 2015

Watch Out: Financial Advisors Are Selling ‘Life Planning’ Services -- Joanne Cleaver U.S. News and World Report

January 28, 2015

Market Watch with Chuck Jaffe: Investor amnesia can doom our portfolio -- Chuck Jaffe Tulsa World

January 11, 2015

Baby bulls put stock in market -- Aaron Elstein Crain's New York Business


January 30, 2015

Magical Markets, Swiss Franc, and Social Earnings Forecasts

We realise that you will think your own experience while watching magic is unique to you, but we know that, in general, everyone thinks in more or less the same way.  Even as it gets harder to apply a technological edge, applying a psychological edge offers us nearly limitless possibilities.
~ David Blaine

In his TED talk "How I held my breath for 17 minutes," magician and endurance performer David Blaine recalls several of his jaw-dropping performances.  How magicians misdirect the attention and perceptions of groups has lessons for investors, which we will explain deeper in this newsletter.
 

One of the wonderful things about the art of magic is that it doesn’t really matter where the trapdoor is.  That’s not the secret.  The secret is that magicians influence what you think by using your own preconceived ideas of the world around you to amaze you.
~ David Blaine

Gustav Kuhn, a cognitive psychologist and magician, studies how magic tricks work.  In one study Kuhn threw a ball into the air.  When it came back down he caught it, and he threw it back up in the air, his eyes following it up.  He did this twice, and on the third throw he pretended to throw it up while his eyes tracked the invisible arc of its course. Two thirds of the participants reported seeing the ball vanish in mid-air, even though it never left his hand.  In a second condition, he pretended to throw the ball in the air, but instead of tracking it with his eyes, he stared at the ball in his hand.  In that condition only one-third of the subjects believed he had thrown the ball into the air.  Participants misperceived the actual event based on their expectations, as set by the magician.

According to Kuhn, "Even though the ball never left the hand, the reason people saw it leave is because they expected the ball to leave the hand. It's the beliefs about what should happen that override the actual visual input."

As humans we are hardwired to perceive patterns and to develop beliefs that even reality cannot shake.  Magicians learn how to set beliefs, misdirect attention, and trick our senses.  Some of their tricks parallel the ways in which markets collectively fool investors.

In today’s newsletter we review what we can learn from magicians, the untethering of the Swiss Franc (CHF), this weeks’ tech stock earnings, recent quantitative stock results, and when we should believe our market perceptions versus when we should doubt them.  As usual it's a fairly long newsletter today, so feel free to skip ahead to the topics or images of interest.

continue reading...

World Markets

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Econunc Govinst
United States +6.0%
United Kingdom +1.8%
Germany +5.8%
Japan +5.6%
China -0.2%
India -2.7%

updated 2015-02-26

Currencies

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prcfrc Volatil
US Dollar -0.6%
Euro +0.6%
Brazilian Real -10.1%
Japanese Yen -0.9%

updated 2015-02-26

Commodities

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prodvol Cnsmvol
Crude Oil +14.7%
Natural Gas +1.8%
Gold -6.6%
Corn +0.5%

updated 2015-02-26

US Sectors

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Innovtn Earnfct
Technology +7.4%
Energy +8.3%
Utilities -6.5%
Financials +5.6%
Industrials +5.8%

updated 2015-02-26

US Large Cap

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Mktrisk Fundmstr
Apple Inc +13.1%
Bank of America Corp +5.5%
General Electric Co +8.6%
JPMorgan Chase & Co +12.5%
Microsoft Corp +7.0%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc -3.5%

updated 2015-02-26


Countries Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Relative Buzz
Highest Lowest
United States Belgium
India Netherlands
Australia Norway
China Sweden
United Kingdom Singapore
Violence
Highest Lowest
Pakistan Singapore
Israel Brazil
Denmark Hong Kong
France China
Turkey Switzerland

updated 2015-02-26

Currencies Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Love Hate
Highest Lowest
New Zealand Dollar Singapore Dollar
Thai Baht Russian Ruble
Israeli Shekel Euro
Indonesian Rupiah Turkish Lira
British Pound Brazilian Real
Time Urgency
Highest Lowest
Chinese Yuan Renminbi Egyptian Pound
Swiss Franc New Zealand Dollar
Israeli Shekel Brazilian Real
Turkish Lira Taiwanese Dollar
Canadian Dollar Thai Baht

updated 2015-02-26

Commodities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Uncertainty
Highest Lowest
Silver Hogs
Gold Heating Oil
Natural Gas Orange Juice
Copper Coffee
Wheat Cattle
Buzz
Highest Lowest
Crude Oil Orange Juice
Gold Palladium
Copper Hogs
Natural Gas Heating Oil
Wheat Platinum

updated 2015-02-26

Equities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Uncertainty
Highest Lowest
C R Bard Inc W W Grainger Inc
DTE Energy Co Host Hotels & Resorts Inc
TJX Companies Inc People's United Financial Inc
Aon PLC ACE Ltd
Teradata Corp Joy Global Inc
Stress
Highest Lowest
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Microchip Technology Inc
Crown Castle International Corp Waters Corp
Transocean Ltd Affiliated Managers Group Inc
Red Hat Inc TE Connectivity Ltd
Seagate Technology PLC Amphenol Corp

updated 2015-02-26