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About MarketPsych

MarketPsych LLC is a leader in behavioral finance, applying the competitive advantages from modern psychology into finance through data, research, and consulting.

DATA
World's most comprehensive sentiment data produced in partnership with Thomson Reuters
RESEARCH
Predictive analytics underlying economic research, trading strategies, and investment recommendations
CONSULTING
Best-in-class coaching for financial advisors, traders and investors

Latest News

March 24, 2015

We're presenting a free webinar for CTAs:  "Systematically Exploiting Trends in Commodities, Forex, and Global Equity Indexes Using Media Sentiment Analysis."  Register Here (Select WEBCAST 4).

January 28, 2015

A recording of our webinar "Arbitraging News Sentiment Across Global Equities" is available on YouTube.

January 21, 2015

Join us for a webinar explaining results from our newest equities sentiment research:  "Arbitraging News Sentiment Across Global Equities", ​hosted by Unicom and presented by Dr. Peterson.

Recent Press

January 29, 2015

Watch Out: Financial Advisors Are Selling ‘Life Planning’ Services -- Joanne Cleaver U.S. News and World Report

January 28, 2015

Market Watch with Chuck Jaffe: Investor amnesia can doom our portfolio -- Chuck Jaffe Tulsa World

January 11, 2015

Baby bulls put stock in market -- Aaron Elstein Crain's New York Business


March 01, 2015

Intellectual Imposters, Greece, and Emotional ETFs

As a psychiatrist I’ve worked at the fringes of human experience, and I've come to believe that it’s in those edge cases that we sometimes learn the most about ourselves.

Imagine awakening from a concussion to find that your spouse has been replaced by an imposter.  Besides a minor headache you have no other problems - just that one.  A stranger is pretending to be your spouse.  She looks, talks, and lives exactly like your spouse, but you know - deep down - she’s not your spouse.  Of course it doesn’t make sense intellectually that your spouse was replaced by a double, but you absolutely feel that way.  

Capgras syndrome is the name for this disorder, and it is characterized by a delusional belief that a loved one has been replaced by an imposter.  The feelings of strangeness win out over the intellectual understanding that this person looks and acts identically to your spouse.

For those with Capgras Syndrome, a break in brain circuitry disconnects the facial recognition area from the limbic system.   The face of a loved one usually elicits an emotional response - joy, excitement, love.  But after a blow to the head (or other neurological issue), this feeling is no longer experienced.  Patients see their spouse with their eyes, but they don’t feel anything.  In fact, while the skin of a normal person shows evidence of physiological arousal (slight sweating) when the image of a loved one is viewed, the skin conductance of those with Capgras’ Syndrome stays flatlined.  

Because Capgras’ sufferers see the exact person (“yes, she looks just like my wife”) but don’t feel recognition (“I know she’s not my wife”), a battle ensues between reason and emotion in the brain.  You might expect them to get on with life, living with the intellectual assurance that this person clearly must be their spouse.  When everyone around them insists “this is your spouse, not a fake!” – that should hold some weight.  But the brain accepts emotional input as superior to visual/intellectual input, and the patient remains doubting. 

Because the Capgras’ patient feels no connection with the loved one, the only rational explanation (to the brain) is that she must be an imposter, a double.  And the mind tends to attribute sinister motives to the imposter: “What did she do to my real wife?!” which can lead to violent behavior.  An elaborate story is fabricated out of a simple disconnect.

But Capgras patients are not always upset by the imposters.  One man with Capgras reportedly confessed to his priest that he had repeatedly been unfaithful to his wife – he had been sleeping with his wife’s doubles.

As investors we are often confronted with what we know to be true intellectually versus what we feel emotionally.  “I know this market is overvalued on a historical P/E basis, but I feel like it will still go up.” Even as experienced investors who know we should rely on the intellectual assessments, the pull of emotional reasoning - reinforced by the media - is strong.  As you can see in our ETF model below, the best investing opportunities come when we trade against both the emotions and the intellect of the media.  This week’s newsletter examines the battle of reason and emotion, how that plays out in events such as a potential Greek default, and the cycles of belief that drive ETF prices.

continue reading...

World Markets

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Econunc Govinst
United States -1.1%
United Kingdom +0.6%
Germany +5.9%
Japan +6.1%
China +12.7%
India -3.1%

updated 2015-03-25

Currencies

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prcfrc Volatil
US Dollar +5.4%
Euro -5.0%
Brazilian Real -11.1%
Japanese Yen -1.0%

updated 2015-03-25

Commodities

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prodvol Cnsmvol
Crude Oil -3.6%
Natural Gas -4.0%
Gold -0.4%
Corn +4.3%

updated 2015-03-25

US Sectors

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Innovtn Earnfct
Technology -4.1%
Energy -3.5%
Utilities -4.3%
Financials -2.1%
Industrials -4.1%

updated 2015-03-25

US Large Cap

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Mktrisk Fundmstr
Apple Inc -6.7%
Bank of America Corp -5.9%
General Electric Co -1.9%
JPMorgan Chase & Co -2.0%
Microsoft Corp -6.0%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc -3.8%

updated 2015-03-25


Countries Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Residential Real Estate Sales
Highest Lowest
Spain Singapore
Norway Hong Kong
Canada China
United States Russia
Netherlands Germany
Budget Deficit
Highest Lowest
France Sweden
Brazil Hong Kong
Saudi Arabia Japan
South Africa Germany
Singapore Australia

updated 2015-03-25

Currencies Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Sentiment
Highest Lowest
United Arab Emirates Dirham Turkish Lira
Norwegian Krone Brazilian Real
Hong Kong Dollar Russian Ruble
Polish Zloty Indonesian Rupiah
Argentine Peso Mexican Peso
Long Short
Highest Lowest
Norwegian Krone Chinese Yuan Renminbi
Japanese Yen South Korean Won
Iranian Rial Singapore Dollar
Malaysian Ringgit Mexican Peso
Brazilian Real British Pound

updated 2015-03-25

Commodities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Long Short Forecast
Highest Lowest
Palladium Rice
Silver Cattle
Gold Soybeans
Orange Juice Coffee
Copper Corn
Relative Buzz
Highest Lowest
Crude Oil Orange Juice
Wheat Palladium
Gold Heating Oil
Cattle Platinum
Coffee Hogs

updated 2015-03-25

Equities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Trust
Highest Lowest
FirstEnergy Corp Intuit Inc
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co
Allergan Inc Progressive Corp
Fluor Corp Adobe Systems Inc
Mead Johnson Nutrition Co Anadarko Petroleum Corp
Litigation
Highest Lowest
Johnson & Johnson NASDAQ OMX Group Inc
C R Bard Inc CareFusion Corp
Noble Energy Inc American Tower Corp
American International Group Inc Tesoro Corp
Verisign Inc Discovery Communications Inc

updated 2015-03-25