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About MarketPsych

MarketPsych LLC is a leader in behavioral finance, applying the competitive advantages from modern psychology into finance through data, research, and consulting.

DATA
World's most comprehensive sentiment data produced in partnership with Thomson Reuters
RESEARCH
Predictive analytics underlying economic research, trading strategies, and investment recommendations
CONSULTING
Best-in-class coaching for financial advisors, traders and investors

Latest News

July 12, 2015

We'll be in London presenting at the excellent Sentiment and Behavioural Analysis in Finance Conference on Thursday July 16th.

July 10, 2015

We're presenting the London Quant Group Evening Seminar, 14th July 2015:  Sentiment Analysis: Uncovering systematic misbehaviour in global markets.

June 01, 2015

We proud to say that we officially launched our global companies feed today covering 8,000 stocks from global social and news media with 24 sentiments and fundamental feeds in minutely and hourly data back to 1998.

Recent Press

June 02, 2015

Der Psychiater der Wall Street -- Tim Schäfer Wirtschafts Blatt

June 01, 2015

Thomson Reuters expands MarketPsych analysis service -- Automated Trader

April 27, 2015

Hopkins research finds Twitter mood predicts success of IPOs -- Lorraine Mirabella Bloomberg Business


July 12, 2015

Risk-on? How fear triggers sell-offs and when to catch the falling knife

Investing is an activity of forecasting the yield over the life of the asset; speculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.
~ John Maynard Keynes

On the morning of May 6, 2010, mayhem erupted on the streets of Athens, Greece.  Later that day, the Flash Crash occurred, sending the U.S. stocks markets down by 9% intraday.  A random coincidence?  The data suggests not.

Like that May day in 2010, the spectre of default risk raised its head this month.  Chinese equities plummeted, Grexit appeared imminent, and even little Puerto Rico contributed a scare.   Institutions have a limited power to save us from ourselves, as this excellent article by Jason Zweig recounts, and investors were again reminded that the surges of emotion through markets - especially fear- can drive prices dramatically.  A global risk-off movement took hold briefly, and given the disquiet produced by events in China and Europe, it is probable that the volatility is only beginning.  

Risk-on behavior is a collective pursuit of financial safety, while risk-off describes the flow of capital to momentum-driven and higher yielding securities.  Periods of risk-off are catalyzed by a growing sense of unpredictability, increasingly negative news flow, and rapidly falling prices.

Today's newsletter looks at how a seed of doubt, once germinated, can begin to choke investors with tendrils of fear.  We examine a sentiment-based sell signal in China before the recent downturn which is similar to a signal seen before the May 2010 Flash Crash.  The question for investors on the sidelines of such panics is when to "catch the falling knife" and buy into the fear.  Evidence shows that Warren Buffett is correct to counsel us to "buy on fear," but ONLY when fundamental valuations are also attractive, which we demonstrate through recent research.

continue reading...

World Markets

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Econunc Govinst
United States -0.8%
United Kingdom +2.3%
Germany +5.2%
Japan +2.0%
China -0.5%
India -0.5%

updated 2015-08-04

Currencies

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prcfrc Volatil
US Dollar +1.1%
Euro -1.1%
Brazilian Real -8.6%
Japanese Yen -0.8%

updated 2015-08-04

Commodities

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prodvol Cnsmvol
Crude Oil -14.0%
Natural Gas -0.3%
Gold -7.1%
Corn -12.4%

updated 2015-08-04

US Sectors

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Innovtn Earnfct
Technology +1.3%
Energy -8.0%
Utilities +2.6%
Financials +2.4%
Industrials -0.2%

updated 2015-08-04

US Large Cap

- (30 day data)


Countries Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Mktrisk Fundmstr
NA
Conflict
Highest Lowest
Israel Norway
Turkey Sweden
India Switzerland
Mexico China
Russia Singapore
Interest Rates Forecast
Highest Lowest
United States India
Brazil Italy
United Kingdom Denmark
South Africa Israel
Singapore Pakistan

updated 2015-08-04

Currencies Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Price Forecast
Highest Lowest
Polish Zloty Argentine Peso
South Korean Won Canadian Dollar
Indian Rupee Russian Ruble
Thai Baht Australian Dollar
British Pound Mexican Peso
Carry Trade
Highest Lowest
Japanese Yen Russian Ruble
Euro US Dollar
Australian Dollar Australian Dollar
US Dollar Euro
Russian Ruble Japanese Yen

updated 2015-08-04

Commodities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Regulatory Issues
Highest Lowest
Palladium Heating Oil
Natural Gas Soybeans
Cattle Corn
Silver Copper
Crude Oil Hogs
Price Forecast
Highest Lowest
Corn Platinum
Rice Heating Oil
Coffee Crude Oil
Silver Cattle
Hogs Soybeans

updated 2015-08-04

Equities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Optimism
Highest Lowest
Progressive Corp CSX Corp
Mohawk Industries Inc Praxair Inc
Reynolds American Inc Vornado Realty Trust
Newell Rubbermaid Inc Franklin Resources Inc
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Pioneer Natural Resources Co
Market Risk
Highest Lowest
Stanley Black & Decker Inc Consolidated Edison Inc
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc Cablevision Systems Corp
Republic Services Inc Vornado Realty Trust
Torchmark Corp State Street Corp
Valero Energy Corp Target Corp

updated 2015-08-04