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About MarketPsych

MarketPsych LLC is a leader in behavioral finance, applying the competitive advantages from modern psychology into finance through data, research, and consulting.

DATA
World's most comprehensive sentiment data produced in partnership with Thomson Reuters
RESEARCH
Predictive analytics underlying economic research, trading strategies, and investment recommendations
CONSULTING
Best-in-class coaching for financial advisors, traders and investors

Latest News

May 17, 2016

Please join Dr. Peterson at 9am ET on May 24th for our free webinar on "​Trading on Sentiment."

May 01, 2016

Dr. Peterson is speaking in Budapest on May 11th at Global Derivatives, the world's largest quant finance gathering.

April 30, 2016

MarketPsych Research Analysts Brandon Becker published new sentiment research on the Japanese Yen, Chipotle, Starbucks, and Volkswagen while Tate Hayes published on Ford and the Australian market and Chesapeake and Sean Reilly wrote about an imminent decline in Tesla shares.

Recent Press

May 14, 2016

How To Time The Stock Market Using Media Sentiment -- Ky Trang Ho Forbes

May 01, 2016

Book Review: Trading On Sentiment -- Brenda Jubin Investing.com

March 28, 2016

The ‘Brussels’ effect in investing -- Judy Martel Bankrate.com


May 02, 2016

Machine Learning, Big Data, and Finding Alpha in the Noise

In quantitative investing, deep learning could be dismissed as a surefire way to overfit on data.  However, as we will describe in more detail below, appropriate set up of deep learning can improve results significantly.  In particular, learning algorithms that first identify the market context in which their strategies are deployed (the regime), are better prepared to learn how markets dynamically adapt to information flow.  Academic research in finance does not yet use deep learning (interdisciplinary research is often slow in coming), but it does support the value of understanding context.  For example, research by Elijah DePalma at Thomson Reuters demonstrates that the performance of common investment strategies differs across market regimes, and these differences may be rooted in the divergent mental states of traders in each context (e.g., optimism in a bull market versus pessimism in a bear market).

Historically, many investors have used the VIX to define market regimes as calm or volatile. As DePalma did in the whitepaper linked to above, sentiment can define market regimes.  Our own data product - the Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices (TRMI) - was built to address the problem of dimension reduction in media flow, in part to improve regime detection.  The TRMI quantify and aggregate the information that is directly meaningful and impactful to traders in the form of granular sentiment indexes like "fear" and "joy" as well as macroeconomic indexes like "earningsForecast" and "fundamentalStrength" suggested by a review of the academic literature.   

In the new world of machine-learned strategies, most algorithms use a switching mechanism to change algorithms as regimes shift.  Given that deep learning is based on the neural basis of human decision making, it helps to consider how such human decision making changes depending on the context.  For example, in the midst of market panic, traders think and behave very differently than in the midst of a gradual bull market.  A network that generalizes information like a human mind under stress will behave superiorly during a market panic. However, when markets are quiet, a more complex network architecture can ascertain the nuances of information flow and price behavior. Research supports the use of such regime-dependent approaches in more primitive forms (e.g., switching from value to momentum strategies depending on the VIX level). 

With the recent explosion of such machine-readable and granular data sets, deep learning is better able to show its value.  To support the surge of interest in applying machine learning to vast financial datasets, a new ecosystem - including data such as the TRMI - has arisen.

continue reading...

World Markets

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Econunc Govinst
United States +0.2%
United Kingdom -0.8%
Germany -0.3%
Japan +1.0%
China -4.2%
India +4.1%

updated 2016-05-27

Currencies

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prcfrc Volatil
US Dollar +2.1%
Euro -2.1%
Brazilian Real -3.5%
Japanese Yen -1.9%

updated 2016-05-27

Commodities

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prodvol Cnsmvol
Crude Oil +7.2%
Natural Gas -5.5%
Gold -3.6%
Corn +6.7%

updated 2016-05-27

US Sectors

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Innovtn Earnfct
Technology +3.8%
Energy -0.7%
Utilities +1.5%
Financials +1.6%
Industrials -1.0%

updated 2016-05-27

US Large Cap

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Mktrisk Fundmstr
Apple Inc +6.5%
Bank of America Corp +0.6%
General Electric Co -2.5%
JPMorgan Chase & Co +2.9%
Microsoft Corp +5.6%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc +3.4%

updated 2016-05-27


Countries Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Interest Rates
Highest Lowest
United States South Korea
Mexico Australia
Hong Kong Ireland
South Africa Norway
Saudi Arabia Russia
Government Instability
Highest Lowest
Brazil Switzerland
Turkey Canada
Belgium Denmark
France Hong Kong
Israel Singapore

updated 2016-05-27

Currencies Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Conflict
Highest Lowest
British Pound South Korean Won
Polish Zloty New Zealand Dollar
Indonesian Rupiah Egyptian Pound
Indian Rupee Swiss Franc
Brazilian Real Norwegian Krone
Price Direction
Highest Lowest
Thai Baht Taiwanese Dollar
Singapore Dollar Australian Dollar
US Dollar Egyptian Pound
Indonesian Rupiah Malaysian Ringgit
Japanese Yen Polish Zloty

updated 2016-05-27

Commodities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Long Short
Highest Lowest
Wheat Cattle
Gold Heating Oil
Corn Copper
Silver Platinum
Soybeans Coffee
Regulatory Issues
Highest Lowest
Rice Soybeans
Copper Palladium
Natural Gas Crude Oil
Cattle Silver
Gold Corn

updated 2016-05-27

Equities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Relative Buzz
Highest Lowest
Accenture PLC SL Green Realty Corp
Seagate Technology PLC People's United Financial Inc
Facebook Inc Broadcom Corp
Apple Inc Hudson City Bancorp Inc
Signet Jewelers Ltd Apartment Investment and Management Co
Buzz
Highest Lowest
Facebook Inc SL Green Realty Corp
Apple Inc People's United Financial Inc
Amazon.com Inc Broadcom Corp
Google Inc Hudson City Bancorp Inc
Ryder System Inc Apartment Investment and Management Co

updated 2016-05-27