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About MarketPsych

MarketPsych LLC is a leader in behavioral finance, applying the competitive advantages from modern psychology into finance through data, research, and consulting.

DATA
World's most comprehensive sentiment data produced in partnership with Thomson Reuters
RESEARCH
Predictive analytics underlying economic research, trading strategies, and investment recommendations
CONSULTING
Best-in-class coaching for financial advisors, traders and investors

Latest News

September 02, 2015

We'll be presenting at several events in Budapest, Istanbul, Singapore, and Hong Kong in late September (18-25).  Please let us know if you would like to join us.

July 07, 2015

We're presenting the London Quant Group Evening Seminar, 14th July 2015:  Sentiment Analysis: Uncovering systematic misbehaviour in global markets.

July 07, 2015

We'll be in London presenting at the excellent Sentiment and Behavioural Analysis in Finance Conference on Thursday July 16th.

Recent Press

August 30, 2015

A Q&A with Wall Street’s top psychiatrist on market turmoil -- Matthew Craft Associated Press

August 28, 2015

Why the Market Finally Corrected -- Bob Frick Investing Daily

June 02, 2015

Der Psychiater der Wall Street -- Tim Schäfer Wirtschafts Blatt


August 09, 2015

Innovation, Vision, and Stock Prices

I cannot help fearing that men may reach a point where they look on every new theory as a danger, every innovation as a toilsome trouble, every social advance as a first step toward revolution, and that they may absolutely refuse to move at all.
~ Alexis de Tocqueville (1840)

The past 10-15 years has seen an explosion in innovations: self-driving vehicles (Google), all-electric vehicles (Tesla), inexpensive space launches (SpaceX), the sharing economy (Uber and AirBnB), genetic technologies and cancer immunotherapy, online education (often free), drones, smart phones (Apple, etc...), 3-D printing, robotics, maker spaces, the internet of things, and machine learning - which is itself opening up entire new fields including robotics and translation - let me catch my breath here.  Regardless of these amazing innovations over the past decade, some experts believe that these are simply enhancements, not game-changing innovations.  They debate whether the economy has reached a plateau of innovation.

Tyler Cowen, a professor of Economics at George Mason University and author of the MarginalRevolution blog, authored "The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better," a pamphlet published in 2011. His work argues that the American economy has reached a technological plateau and the factors which drove economic growth for most of America's history are spent. The "low-hanging fruit" from the title include the cultivation of previously untilled land, the spread of transport, refrigeration, electricity, mass communications, and sanitation innovations from 1880-1940, mass education, and potentially cheap fossil fuels and the strength of the American constitution. While those produced extremely large returns, future advances will be much more incremental. In a vivid example, he compares the changes witnessed by his grandmother versus those over his own lifetime, and finds the changes he has witnessed to be incremental rather than world-changing.

Cowen takes a critical and too-narrow view of some recent innovations.  He noted on his blog about the hyperloop, a technology to transport people through pneumatic tube-like systems at around 500mph:  "I cannot speak to the technical issues ... but I wonder where the real gain is....  You can already fly LA to San Francisco in about an hour.  Is saving that time so important, noting that in the best case scenario the hyperloop still takes 35 minutes?"

Cowen's argument neglects that one of the most important aspects of inventiveness and innovation - the DREAM.  People - employees, investors, regulators - are motivated by vision.  If we deconstruct the vision into its parts - what is feasible with current technology and what is not - we will never try.  And even when a new project fails, it often leads to new spin-off technologies and greater wisdom about what works and what doesn't.  Steve Jobs understood this, and so does Musk - as he demonstrates when he requires nay-saying employees to explain the materials chemistry and physics that prevent an idea from being manifested in technology.   Once the physics makes an idea in the realm of possibility, then the emotional inspiration of the vision is the motivation behind its ultimate achievement.

Ashlee Vance notes that Musk has two posters of Mars outside his office at SpaceX.  One is Mars now - red rocks and dust - and one depicts Mars transformed into a viable environment for human life - blue and green and with an atmosphere.  That VISION is tangible and emotionally resonant.  It is a guiding inspiration for his commercial ventures.

We are on the verge - within the next 30 years - of living in a world of Mars colonies, cancer cures, free online education, travel by hyperloop, a world of self-driving vehicles and drones.  Regardless of naysayers, the visions that succeed over the next decades will be those that inspire.  Many innovations are possible but have simply not been dreamed of.  Those that are brought to life will be those that inspire smart people to dedicate their lives.

continue reading...

World Markets

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Econunc Govinst
United States -6.8%
United Kingdom -9.0%
Germany -12.3%
Japan -11.8%
China -15.9%
India -9.3%

updated 2015-09-02

Currencies

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prcfrc Volatil
US Dollar -2.4%
Euro +2.5%
Brazilian Real -5.5%
Japanese Yen +2.1%

updated 2015-09-02

Commodities

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Prodvol Cnsmvol
Crude Oil -0.7%
Natural Gas -3.9%
Gold +4.5%
Corn -3.5%

updated 2015-09-02

US Sectors

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Innovtn Earnfct
Technology -5.3%
Energy -4.4%
Utilities -5.0%
Financials -8.6%
Industrials -5.4%

updated 2015-09-02

US Large Cap

- (30 day data)

Price Buzz Sntment Mktrisk Fundmstr
Apple Inc -1.6%
Bank of America Corp -10.7%
General Electric Co -5.1%
JPMorgan Chase & Co -8.6%
Microsoft Corp -8.2%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc -10.2%

updated 2015-09-02


Countries Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Government Anger
Highest Lowest
Mexico Belgium
Indonesia Netherlands
Pakistan Norway
Russia Switzerland
Hong Kong Saudi Arabia
Residential Real Estate Values
Highest Lowest
Sweden Singapore
United Kingdom Norway
Canada Brazil
Australia Spain
Switzerland Philippines

updated 2015-09-02

Currencies Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Price Direction
Highest Lowest
British Pound Brazilian Real
Japanese Yen Russian Ruble
Thai Baht Israeli Shekel
US Dollar Turkish Lira
Polish Zloty Malaysian Ringgit
Price Forecast
Highest Lowest
Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel
Japanese Yen Swedish Krona
British Pound Taiwanese Dollar
Polish Zloty Hong Kong Dollar
Thai Baht Swiss Franc

updated 2015-09-02

Commodities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Conflict
Highest Lowest
Platinum Hogs
Cattle Orange Juice
Rice Silver
Natural Gas Soybeans
Copper Palladium
Time Urgency
Highest Lowest
Heating Oil Wheat
Cattle Hogs
Soybeans Orange Juice
Natural Gas Platinum
Silver Corn

updated 2015-09-02

Equities Top Lists

- (30 day data)

Fundamental Strength
Highest Lowest
CSX Corp CenterPoint Energy Inc
Monster Worldwide Inc AOL Inc
Skyworks Solutions Inc Genworth Financial Inc
Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc NCR Corp
Target Corp United Technologies Corp
Volatility
Highest Lowest
Citrix Systems Inc DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc
KeyCorp Archer Daniels Midland Co
Ashland Inc IAC/InterActiveCorp
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc Higher One Holdings Inc
Delta Air Lines Inc CIT Group Inc

updated 2015-09-02